PMID- 33273500
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20210317
LR  - 20240330
IS  - 2045-2322 (Electronic)
IS  - 2045-2322 (Linking)
VI  - 10
IP  - 1
DP  - 2020 Dec 3
TI  - Characterizing the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Jordan up to 2050.
PG  - 21001
LID - 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7 [doi]
LID - 21001
AB  - We aimed to characterize the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic and the 
      role of key risk factors in Jordan between 1990-2050, and to forecast the 
      T2DM-related costs. A recently-developed population-level T2DM mathematical model 
      was adapted and applied to Jordan. The model was fitted to six population-based 
      survey data collected between 1990 and 2017. T2DM prevalence was 14.0% in 1990, 
      and projected to be 16.0% in 2020, and 20.6% in 2050. The total predicted number 
      of T2DM cases were 218,326 (12,313 were new cases) in 1990, 702,326 (36,941 were 
      new cases) in 2020, and 1.9 million (79,419 were new cases) in 2050. Out of 
      Jordan's total health expenditure, 19.0% in 1990, 21.1% in 2020, and 25.2% in 
      2050 was forecasted to be spent on T2DM. The proportion of T2DM incident cases 
      attributed to obesity was 55.6% in 1990, 59.5% in 2020, and 62.6% in 2050. 
      Meanwhile, the combined contribution of smoking and physical inactivity hovered 
      around 5% between 1990 and 2050. Jordan's T2DM epidemic is predicted to grow 
      sizably in the next three decades, driven by population ageing and high and 
      increasing obesity levels. The national strategy to prevent T2DM needs to be 
      strengthened by focusing it on preventive interventions targeting T2DM and key 
      risk factors.
FAU - Awad, Susanne F
AU  - Awad SF
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell 
      University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar. 
      sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics 
      on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell 
      Medicine -Qatar, Doha, Qatar. sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell 
      University, New York, USA. sua2006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
FAU - Huangfu, Peijue
AU  - Huangfu P
AD  - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, 
      UK.
FAU - Dargham, Soha R
AU  - Dargham SR
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell 
      University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
AD  - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics 
      on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell 
      Medicine -Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
FAU - Ajlouni, Kamel
AU  - Ajlouni K
AD  - The National Centre for Diabetes, Endocrine and Genetics, The University of 
      Jordan, Amman, Jordan.
FAU - Batieha, Anwar
AU  - Batieha A
AD  - Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science 
      and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
FAU - Khader, Yousef S
AU  - Khader YS
AD  - Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Jordan University of Science 
      and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
FAU - Critchley, Julia A
AU  - Critchley JA
AD  - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, 
      UK.
FAU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J
AU  - Abu-Raddad LJ
AD  - Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell 
      University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar. 
      lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics 
      on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell 
      Medicine -Qatar, Doha, Qatar. lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
AD  - Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell 
      University, New York, USA. lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20201203
PL  - England
TA  - Sci Rep
JT  - Scientific reports
JID - 101563288
SB  - IM
MH  - Adolescent
MH  - Adult
MH  - Child
MH  - Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/economics/*epidemiology
MH  - Epidemics/*statistics & numerical data
MH  - Female
MH  - Health Expenditures
MH  - Humans
MH  - Jordan
MH  - Male
MH  - Obesity/epidemiology
MH  - Sedentary Behavior
MH  - Smoking/epidemiology
PMC - PMC7713435
COIS- The authors declare no competing interests.
EDAT- 2020/12/05 06:00
MHDA- 2021/03/18 06:00
PMCR- 2020/12/03
CRDT- 2020/12/04 05:41
PHST- 2020/05/21 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2020/11/18 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2020/12/04 05:41 [entrez]
PHST- 2020/12/05 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2021/03/18 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2020/12/03 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7 [pii]
AID - 77970 [pii]
AID - 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 3;10(1):21001. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77970-7.