PMID- 33319467
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20210709
LR  - 20210709
IS  - 1463-1326 (Electronic)
IS  - 1462-8902 (Linking)
VI  - 23
IP  - 4
DP  - 2021 Apr
TI  - Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in 
      Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care.
PG  - 897-909
LID - 10.1111/dom.14292 [doi]
AB  - AIMS: To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and 
      charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 
      diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized 
      treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a 10-year population-based 
      observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without 
      history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care 
      clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of 
      these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk 
      prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models 
      were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We 
      selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to 
      construct the nomograms and charts. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 
      9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). 
      Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic 
      blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, 
      urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration 
      rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total 
      cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for 
      men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 
      0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both 
      sexes to develop nomograms and charts. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available 
      variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be 
      predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to 
      facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized 
      care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.
CI  - (c) 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
FAU - Dong, Weinan
AU  - Dong W
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-3541-1649
AD  - Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, Hong 
      Kong.
FAU - Wan, Eric Yuk Fai
AU  - Wan EYF
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6275-1147
AD  - Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, Hong 
      Kong.
AD  - Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
FAU - Fong, Daniel Yee Tak
AU  - Fong DYT
AD  - School of Nursing, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
FAU - Kwok, Ruby Lai Ping
AU  - Kwok RLP
AD  - Department of Primary and Community Services, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong.
FAU - Chao, David Vai Kiong
AU  - Chao DVK
AD  - Department of Family Medicine and Primary Health Care, Kowloon East Cluster, 
      Hospital Authority, Hong Kong.
FAU - Tan, Kathryn Choon Beng
AU  - Tan KCB
AD  - Department of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
FAU - Hui, Eric Ming Tung
AU  - Hui EMT
AD  - Department of Family Medicine, New Territories East Cluster, Hospital Authority, 
      Hong Kong.
FAU - Tsui, Wendy Wing Sze
AU  - Tsui WWS
AD  - Family Medicine and Primary Healthcare, QMH, Hong Kong West Cluster, Hospital 
      Authority, Hong Kong.
FAU - Chan, King Hong
AU  - Chan KH
AD  - Kowloon Central Cluster, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong.
FAU - Fung, Colman Siu Cheung
AU  - Fung CSC
AD  - Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, Hong 
      Kong.
FAU - Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen
AU  - Lam CLK
AD  - Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, Hong 
      Kong.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Observational Study
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20210104
PL  - England
TA  - Diabetes Obes Metab
JT  - Diabetes, obesity & metabolism
JID - 100883645
SB  - IM
MH  - China/epidemiology
MH  - *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications/epidemiology
MH  - Female
MH  - Glomerular Filtration Rate
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology/etiology
MH  - Male
MH  - Nomograms
MH  - Primary Health Care
MH  - Retrospective Studies
MH  - Risk Factors
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - end-stage renal disease
OT  - nomogram
OT  - primary care
OT  - risk prediction model
OT  - type 2 diabetes mellitus
EDAT- 2020/12/16 06:00
MHDA- 2021/07/10 06:00
CRDT- 2020/12/15 06:09
PHST- 2020/11/28 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2020/08/09 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2020/12/07 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2020/12/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2021/07/10 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2020/12/15 06:09 [entrez]
AID - 10.1111/dom.14292 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Diabetes Obes Metab. 2021 Apr;23(4):897-909. doi: 10.1111/dom.14292. Epub 2021 
      Jan 4.