PMID- 33359456 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20210421 LR - 20210421 IS - 1096-0953 (Electronic) IS - 0013-9351 (Linking) VI - 194 DP - 2021 Mar TI - Assessment of the effects of human activity and natural condition on the outflow of Syr Darya River: A stepwise-cluster factorial analysis method. PG - 110634 LID - S0013-9351(20)31531-0 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110634 [doi] AB - Water scarcity causes a series of eco-environmental problems, such as land salinization, biodiversity reduction and food crisis, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the Aral Sea basin. In this study, a stepwise-cluster factorial analysis (SCFA) approach is proposed for assessing the effects of natural condition and human activity on the outflow of Syr Darya River (abbreviated as OSR) that has significant effects on the eco-environmental restoration of the Aral Sea. SCFA coupled stepwise cluster analysis and factorial analysis cannot only reflect the variability of outflow, but also identify the driving factors quantitatively. The results disclose that, in 1960-1991, the dominant factors (affecting the OSR) are upstream inflow (25.77%) > agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (7.21%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (4.53%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (3.81%) > Precipitation (3.66%); interactions between upstream inflow and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and interactions between reservoir and evapotranspiration have the significant effects on the OSR. Results also indicate that, in 1992-2015, the dominant factors that affect the OSR are agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (23.31%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (22.15%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (8.31%) > domestic water use of Kazakhstan (4.68%) > agricultural water use of Tajikistan (4.54%) > domestic water use of Uzbekistan (4.41%); the interactions between industrial water use and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and the interactions between reservoir and upstream inflow have the pivotal effects on OSR. In the future, when the agricultural water use of the basin decrease as 4% and the industry water use of Uzbekistan decrease as 2%, the OSR may recover to the middle level of 1970s. The results help identify the major factors affecting the outflow of Syr Darya River as well as seek an effective approach to restore the eco-environment of Aral Sea basin. CI - Copyright (c) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. FAU - Zhai, X B AU - Zhai XB AD - School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. FAU - Li, Y P AU - Li YP AD - School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask. S4S 7H9, Canada. Electronic address: yongping.li@iseis.org. FAU - Liu, Y R AU - Liu YR AD - School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. FAU - Huang, G H AU - Huang GH AD - Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask. S4S 7H9, Canada. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20201223 PL - Netherlands TA - Environ Res JT - Environmental research JID - 0147621 SB - IM MH - *Agriculture MH - Cluster Analysis MH - Human Activities MH - Humans MH - Kazakhstan MH - *Rivers OTO - NOTNLM OT - Eco-environment restoration OT - Factorial analysis OT - Human activity OT - Outflow OT - Stepwise cluster analysis OT - Syr Darya River EDAT- 2020/12/29 06:00 MHDA- 2021/04/22 06:00 CRDT- 2020/12/28 10:47 PHST- 2020/05/21 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/10/22 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2020/12/14 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2020/12/29 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/04/22 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2020/12/28 10:47 [entrez] AID - S0013-9351(20)31531-0 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110634 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Environ Res. 2021 Mar;194:110634. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110634. Epub 2020 Dec 23.