PMID- 33568988 OWN - NLM STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE LR - 20210213 IS - 1663-4365 (Print) IS - 1663-4365 (Electronic) IS - 1663-4365 (Linking) VI - 12 DP - 2020 TI - Motor Progression in Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease: A Clinical Prediction Model and the Role of Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers. PG - 627199 LID - 10.3389/fnagi.2020.627199 [doi] LID - 627199 AB - Background: The substantial heterogeneity of clinical symptoms and lack of reliable progression markers in Parkinson's disease (PD) present a major challenge in predicting accurate progression and prognoses. Increasing evidence indicates that each component of the neurovascular unit (NVU) and blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption may take part in many neurodegenerative diseases. Since some portions of CSF are eliminated along the neurovascular unit and across the BBB, disturbing the pathways may result in changes of these substances. Methods: Four hundred seventy-four participants from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study (NCT01141023) were included in the study. Thirty-six initial features, including general information, brief clinical characteristics and the current year's classical scale scores, were used to build five regression models to predict PD motor progression represented by the coming year's Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) Part III score after redundancy removal and recursive feature elimination (RFE)-based feature selection. Then, a threshold range was added to the predicted value for more convenient model application. Finally, we evaluated the CSF and blood biomarkers' influence on the disease progression model. Results: Eight hundred forty-nine cases were included in the study. The adjusted R(2) values of three different categories of regression model, linear, Bayesian and ensemble, all reached 0.75. Models of the same category shared similar feature combinations. The common features selected among the categories were the MDS-UPDRS Part III score, Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA) and Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Questionnaire (RBDSQ) score. It can be seen more intuitively that the model can achieve certain prediction effect through threshold range. Biomarkers had no significant impact on the progression model within the data in the study. Conclusions: By using machine learning and routinely gathered assessments from the current year, we developed multiple dynamic models to predict the following year's motor progression in the early stage of PD. These methods will allow clinicians to tailor medical management to the individual and identify at-risk patients for future clinical trials examining disease-modifying therapies. CI - Copyright (c) 2021 Ma, Tian, Pan, Chen, Ling, Ren, Li and Feng. FAU - Ma, Ling-Yan AU - Ma LY AD - Department of Neurology, Center for Movement Disorders, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. AD - China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China. FAU - Tian, Yu AU - Tian Y AD - Engineering Research Center of Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and Intelligent Expert System, College of Biomedical Engineering and Instrument Science, Zhejiang University, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China. FAU - Pan, Chang-Rong AU - Pan CR AD - Engineering Research Center of Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and Intelligent Expert System, College of Biomedical Engineering and Instrument Science, Zhejiang University, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China. FAU - Chen, Zhong-Lue AU - Chen ZL AD - Gyenno Science Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, China. FAU - Ling, Yun AU - Ling Y AD - Gyenno Science Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, China. FAU - Ren, Kang AU - Ren K AD - Gyenno Science Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, China. FAU - Li, Jing-Song AU - Li JS AD - Engineering Research Center of Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and Intelligent Expert System, College of Biomedical Engineering and Instrument Science, Zhejiang University, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China. FAU - Feng, Tao AU - Feng T AD - Department of Neurology, Center for Movement Disorders, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China. AD - China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China. AD - Parkinson's Disease Center, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China. LA - eng GR - P20 NS092529/NS/NINDS NIH HHS/United States PT - Journal Article DEP - 20210125 PL - Switzerland TA - Front Aging Neurosci JT - Frontiers in aging neuroscience JID - 101525824 PMC - PMC7868416 OTO - NOTNLM OT - Parkinson's progression markers initiative OT - Parksinon's disease OT - machine learning OT - motor progression OT - predictive model COIS- Z-LC, YL, and KR were employed by company Gyenno Science Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, China. The remaining author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. EDAT- 2021/02/12 06:00 MHDA- 2021/02/12 06:01 PMCR- 2020/01/01 CRDT- 2021/02/11 05:53 PHST- 2020/11/08 00:00 [received] PHST- 2020/12/28 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2021/02/11 05:53 [entrez] PHST- 2021/02/12 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/02/12 06:01 [medline] PHST- 2020/01/01 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.3389/fnagi.2020.627199 [doi] PST - epublish SO - Front Aging Neurosci. 2021 Jan 25;12:627199. doi: 10.3389/fnagi.2020.627199. eCollection 2020.