PMID- 33588326
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20211103
LR  - 20211103
IS  - 1873-1716 (Electronic)
IS  - 0167-5877 (Linking)
VI  - 189
DP  - 2021 Apr
TI  - Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of low pathogenic avian 
      influenza H5 and H7 strains into Poland via legal import of live poultry.
PG  - 105289
LID - S0167-5877(21)00033-7 [pii]
LID - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105289 [doi]
AB  - Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a 
      threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged 
      undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to 
      highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have 
      devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. 
      The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of 
      live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to 
      quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland 
      (P(LPAI)) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting 
      countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial 
      distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic 
      multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability 
      of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that 
      the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 
      [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one 
      outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are 
      Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys 
      contribute most to P(LPAI), whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl 
      represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally 
      distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability 
      of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The 
      results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted 
      prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI.
CI  - Copyright (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
FAU - Gierak, Anna
AU  - Gierak A
AD  - Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Research 
      Institute, 57 Partyzantow Avenue, 24-100, Pulawy, Poland. Electronic address: 
      anna.gierak@piwet.pulawy.pl.
FAU - Smietanka, Krzysztof
AU  - Smietanka K
AD  - Department of Poultry Diseases, National Veterinary Research Institute, 57 
      Partyzantow Avenue, 24-100, Pulawy, Poland. Electronic address: 
      ksmiet@piwet.pulawy.pl.
FAU - de Vos, Clazien J
AU  - de Vos CJ
AD  - Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, 
      P.O. Box 65, 8200, AB Lelystad, the Netherlands. Electronic address: 
      clazien.devos@wur.nl.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20210128
PL  - Netherlands
TA  - Prev Vet Med
JT  - Preventive veterinary medicine
JID - 8217463
SB  - IM
MH  - Animals
MH  - Chickens
MH  - Commerce
MH  - Communicable Diseases, Imported/*veterinary/virology
MH  - *Influenza in Birds/epidemiology
MH  - Poland/epidemiology
MH  - Poultry
MH  - *Poultry Diseases/epidemiology
MH  - Risk Assessment
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Introduction risk
OT  - Low pathogenic avian influenza
OT  - Quantitative risk assessment
OT  - Stochastic risk model
EDAT- 2021/02/16 06:00
MHDA- 2021/11/04 06:00
CRDT- 2021/02/15 20:16
PHST- 2020/07/10 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2021/01/22 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2021/01/24 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2021/02/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2021/11/04 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2021/02/15 20:16 [entrez]
AID - S0167-5877(21)00033-7 [pii]
AID - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105289 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Prev Vet Med. 2021 Apr;189:105289. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105289. Epub 
      2021 Jan 28.