PMID- 33607944 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20211004 LR - 20211004 IS - 1471-2261 (Electronic) IS - 1471-2261 (Linking) VI - 21 IP - 1 DP - 2021 Feb 19 TI - Natural history observations in moderate aortic stenosis. PG - 108 LID - 10.1186/s12872-021-01901-1 [doi] LID - 108 AB - BACKGROUND: The natural history of patients with moderate aortic stenosis (AS) is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the long-term outcomes of patients with moderate AS. METHODS: We examined patients with moderate AS defined by echocardiography in our healthcare system, and performed survival analyses for occurrence of death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and progression of AS, with accounting for symptoms, left ventricular dysfunction, and comorbidities. RESULTS: We examined 729 patients with moderate AS (median age, 76 years; 59.9 % men) with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range: 2.0 to 8.1 years). The 5-year overall survival was 52.3 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 48.6 % to 56.0 %) and survival free of death or HF hospitalization was 43.2 % (95 % CI: 39.5 % to 46.9 %). Worse New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class was associated with poor long-term survival, with mortality rates ranging from 7.9 % (95 % CI: 6.6-9.2 %) to 25.2 % (95 % CI: 20.2-30.3 %) per year. Among patients with minimal or no symptoms, no futility markers, and preserved left ventricular function, 5-year overall survival was 71.9 % (95 % CI: 66.4-77.4 %) and survival free of death or HF hospitalization was 61.4 % (95 % CI: 55.5-67.3 %). Risk factors associated with adverse events were age, NYHA class, low ejection fraction and high aortic valve velocity (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with moderate AS are at significant risk of death. Our findings highlight the need for more study into appropriate therapeutic interventions to improve the prognosis of these patients. FAU - Du, Yu AU - Du Y AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. AD - Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100029, China. FAU - Gossl, Mario AU - Gossl M AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Garcia, Santiago AU - Garcia S AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice AU - Enriquez-Sarano M AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Cavalcante, Joao L AU - Cavalcante JL AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Bae, Richard AU - Bae R AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Hashimoto, Go AU - Hashimoto G AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Fukui, Miho AU - Fukui M AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Lopes, Bernardo AU - Lopes B AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Ahmed, Aisha AU - Ahmed A AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Schmidt, Christian AU - Schmidt C AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Stanberry, Larissa AU - Stanberry L AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Garberich, Ross AU - Garberich R AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Bradley, Steven M AU - Bradley SM AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Steffen, Robert AU - Steffen R AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. FAU - Sorajja, Paul AU - Sorajja P AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-6401-854X AD - Roger L. and Lynn C. Headrick Chair, Valve Science Center, Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Abbott Northwestern Hospital, Minneapolis, MN, 55407, USA. paul.sorajja@allina.com. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20210219 PL - England TA - BMC Cardiovasc Disord JT - BMC cardiovascular disorders JID - 100968539 SB - IM MH - Aged MH - Aged, 80 and over MH - Aortic Valve/diagnostic imaging/physiopathology MH - Aortic Valve Stenosis/diagnostic imaging/*mortality/physiopathology/therapy MH - Comorbidity MH - Disease Progression MH - Echocardiography, Doppler MH - Female MH - Heart Failure/diagnostic imaging/*mortality/physiopathology/therapy MH - Hospitalization MH - Humans MH - Longitudinal Studies MH - Male MH - Progression-Free Survival MH - Retrospective Studies MH - Risk Assessment MH - Risk Factors MH - Severity of Illness Index MH - Stroke Volume MH - Time Factors MH - Ventricular Dysfunction, Left/diagnostic imaging/*mortality/physiopathology/therapy MH - Ventricular Function, Left PMC - PMC7893941 OTO - NOTNLM OT - Aortic stenosis OT - Aortic valve replacement OT - Moderate OT - Outcomes OT - Survival COIS- Dr. Gossl serves as a consultant for Abbott Structural. Dr. Garcia receives Institutional Research grants from Edwards Lifesciences and Boston Scientific; proctors Edwards Lifesciences. Dr. Sarano is a consultant for Cryolife inc, Edwards Lifesciences LLC. Dr. Cavalcante serves as a consultant for Boston Scientific, Abbott Vascular; a speaker for Medtronic, Circle Cardiovascular Imaging, and Siemens Healthineers; receives research grant support from Circle Cardiovascular Imaging, Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic, Boston Scientific, and Abbott Vascular. Dr. Bae is a consultant for Abbott Structural. Dr. Sorajja is a consultant for Abbott Structural, Anteris, Boston Scientific, Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic, TeleFlex, WL Gore. The other authors report no conflict of interest. EDAT- 2021/02/21 06:00 MHDA- 2021/10/05 06:00 PMCR- 2021/02/19 CRDT- 2021/02/20 05:24 PHST- 2020/10/09 00:00 [received] PHST- 2021/02/02 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2021/01/30 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2021/02/20 05:24 [entrez] PHST- 2021/02/21 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/10/05 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2021/02/19 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.1186/s12872-021-01901-1 [pii] AID - 1901 [pii] AID - 10.1186/s12872-021-01901-1 [doi] PST - epublish SO - BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2021 Feb 19;21(1):108. doi: 10.1186/s12872-021-01901-1.