PMID- 33824583 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20210625 LR - 20220421 IS - 1178-2005 (Electronic) IS - 1176-9106 (Print) IS - 1176-9106 (Linking) VI - 16 DP - 2021 TI - There is No Fast Track to Identify Fast Decliners in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency by Spirometry: A Longitudinal Study of Repeated Measurements. PG - 835-840 LID - 10.2147/COPD.S298585 [doi] AB - BACKGROUND: It is known that lung function decline in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (AATD) varies. Those with a rapid decline are at highest risk of poorer outcomes but may benefit most from targeted treatments including augmentation therapy. Current evidence suggests rapid decliners can be identified after 3 years of serial follow-up. It would be advantageous to identify these patients over a shorter time period, especially in mild disease. METHODS: Post-bronchodilator spirometry was performed every 6 months for a total of 18 months (4 measurements) by PiZZ AATD patients (ex- or never-smokers) either without spirometric COPD or with mild COPD. Where possible, retrospective spirometry data were included. Decline was assessed using 2 (baseline and 6 month) or four measurements (including baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months) and compared to retrospective decline rates using annual measurements over 3 years. RESULTS: Seventy-two PiZZ AATD patients were included, with 27 having at least three years of retrospective, annual spirometry. 18-month progression obtained by linear regression showed variable degrees of change with 29 showing no decline, 8 showing slow decline and 35 showing rapid decline. Bland-Altman plots showed that there was no overall agreement between predicted rate of decline using data obtained over 6 months and that obtained over 18 months. Furthermore, there was no agreement between rate of decline from either 6 or 18 months' data when compared to data collected over 3 years. The positive predictive value for rapid decline with 18 months of data compared to 3 years was only 50.0%. CONCLUSION: This study suggests serial lung function over 18 months cannot identify AATD patients who have rapidly declining lung function. There is an urgent need for different biomarkers to help identify these patients at the earliest opportunity. CI - (c) 2021 Stockley et al. FAU - Stockley, James A AU - Stockley JA AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-4070-1923 AD - Lung Function & Sleep Department, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. FAU - Stockley, Robert A AU - Stockley RA AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-3726-1207 AD - Respiratory Department, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. FAU - Sapey, Elizabeth AU - Sapey E AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-3454-5482 AD - PIONEER Health Data Hub in Acute Care, Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK. LA - eng GR - MR/L008335/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom PT - Journal Article DEP - 20210329 PL - New Zealand TA - Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis JT - International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease JID - 101273481 RN - 0 (alpha 1-Antitrypsin) SB - IM MH - Humans MH - Longitudinal Studies MH - *Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/diagnosis MH - Retrospective Studies MH - Spirometry MH - alpha 1-Antitrypsin MH - *alpha 1-Antitrypsin Deficiency/diagnosis PMC - PMC8018552 OTO - NOTNLM OT - alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency OT - decline OT - lung function OT - obstructive airways disease COIS- Professor Robert A Stockley is steering committee for Vertex, advisory board for Z factor, and chair of Data Safety Monitoring Board for Kamada; he also reports grants and/or personal fees from CSL Behring, Mereo biopharma, took part in the laboratory analyses for Takeda, during the conduct of the study. Professor Elizabeth Sapey reports grants from Alpha-1 Foundation, during the conduct of the study; grants from HDR-UK, The Wellcome Trust, MRC, British Lung Foundation, NIHR, and EPSRC, outside the submitted work. The authors report no other conflicts of interest in this work. EDAT- 2021/04/08 06:00 MHDA- 2021/06/29 06:00 PMCR- 2021/03/29 CRDT- 2021/04/07 06:22 PHST- 2020/12/22 00:00 [received] PHST- 2021/03/14 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2021/04/07 06:22 [entrez] PHST- 2021/04/08 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/06/29 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2021/03/29 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 298585 [pii] AID - 10.2147/COPD.S298585 [doi] PST - epublish SO - Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2021 Mar 29;16:835-840. doi: 10.2147/COPD.S298585. eCollection 2021.