PMID- 34569602 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20220415 LR - 20220928 IS - 1758-535X (Electronic) IS - 1079-5006 (Print) IS - 1079-5006 (Linking) VI - 77 IP - 1 DP - 2022 Jan 7 TI - Intrinsic Capacity Predicts Negative Health Outcomes in Older Adults. PG - 101-105 LID - 10.1093/gerona/glab279 [doi] AB - BACKGROUND: Monitoring trajectories of intrinsic capacity (IC) in older adults has been suggested by the World Health Organization as a means to inform prevention to avoid or delay negative health outcomes. Due to a lack of longitudinal studies, it is currently unclear how IC changes over time and whether repeatedly measured IC predicts negative health outcomes. METHODS: Based on 4 751 repeated observations of IC (range = 0-100) during 21 years of follow-up among 754 older adults 70 and older, we assessed longitudinal trajectories of IC, and whether time-varying IC predicted the risk of chronic activities of daily living disability, long-term nursing home stay, and mortality using joint models. RESULTS: Average IC declined progressively from 77 to 11 points during follow-up, with substantial heterogeneity between older adults. Adjusted for sociodemographics and chronic diseases, a 1-point lower IC value was associated with a 7% increase in the risk of activities of daily living disability, a 6% increase in the risk of a nursing home stay, and a 5% increase in mortality. Accuracy for 5- and 10-year predictions based on up to 3 repeated measurements of IC ranged between moderate and good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.76-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that IC declines progressively and that it predicts negative health outcomes among older adults. Therefore, regular monitoring of IC could work as an early warning system informing preventive efforts. CI - (c) The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. FAU - Stolz, Erwin AU - Stolz E AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-7393-1568 AD - Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Medical University of Graz, Austria. FAU - Mayerl, Hannes AU - Mayerl H AD - Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Medical University of Graz, Austria. FAU - Freidl, Wolfgang AU - Freidl W AD - Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Medical University of Graz, Austria. FAU - Roller-Wirnsberger, Regina AU - Roller-Wirnsberger R AD - Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Austria. FAU - Gill, Thomas M AU - Gill TM AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6450-0368 AD - Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA. LA - eng GR - P30AG021342/NH/NIH HHS/United States GR - UL1 TR001863/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States GR - P30 AG021342/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States GR - R01 AG017560/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States GR - R01AG17560/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural PL - United States TA - J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci JT - The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences JID - 9502837 SB - IM MH - *Activities of Daily Living MH - Aged MH - *Disabled Persons MH - Humans MH - Longitudinal Studies MH - Outcome Assessment, Health Care PMC - PMC8751795 OTO - NOTNLM OT - Epidemiology OT - Longitudinal OT - Normative aging OT - Successful aging EDAT- 2021/09/28 06:00 MHDA- 2022/04/16 06:00 PMCR- 2022/09/27 CRDT- 2021/09/27 08:59 PHST- 2021/05/26 00:00 [received] PHST- 2021/09/28 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2022/04/16 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2021/09/27 08:59 [entrez] PHST- 2022/09/27 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 6375807 [pii] AID - glab279 [pii] AID - 10.1093/gerona/glab279 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2022 Jan 7;77(1):101-105. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glab279.