PMID- 34649322 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20211018 LR - 20211018 IS - 1095-8630 (Electronic) IS - 0301-4797 (Linking) VI - 300 DP - 2021 Dec 15 TI - The impacts of international trade on global greenhouse gas emissions: A thought experiment based on a novel no-trade analysis. PG - 113836 LID - S0301-4797(21)01898-3 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113836 [doi] AB - Trade has been substantially influencing regional economic development, environmental sustainability, and human well-being. Enabled by the decomposition analysis, pollution haven hypothesis or "no-trade" scenarios (NTSs), the effects of trade on global/national social-economic-environmental development have been revealed. However, major limitations (e.g., using with-trade economic structures or neglecting price differences) existed in previous studies, and thus made the previous assessments of trade's effects unsatisfactorily. This study develops a novel NTS that addresses the existing limitations, and further applies it to estimate the effect of trade on global economic development and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that current international trade benefits the global economic growth but with a consequence of more GHG emissions compared with the NTS. The hypothetical production in small countries (e.g., Luxembourg or Japan) would be more constrained by the production factors (e.g., land) under the NTS, compared with those factor-endowment countries (e.g., the United States or India). For country-specific analysis, we find that today's developed countries would have a substantial increase in their GHG emissions of clothing- and service-related products under the NTS, whereas countries with net-export (e.g., China or Brazil) would have less GHG emissions under the NTS. Enhancing future global collaborations is vital, especially for small or resource-deficient economies, if they are to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. CI - Copyright (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. FAU - Wu, Zhaodan AU - Wu Z AD - Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100, China; Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing, 211100, China; One Belt & One Road African Research Center, Hohai University, Changzhou, 213022, China. FAU - Yang, Lan AU - Yang L AD - Fudan Tyndall Center and Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, 200438, Shanghai, China. FAU - Chen, Qiyong AU - Chen Q AD - Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100, China. FAU - Ye, Quanliang AU - Ye Q AD - Multidisciplinary Water Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, 7500 AE, Enschede, the Netherlands. Electronic address: q.ye@utwente.nl. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20210924 PL - England TA - J Environ Manage JT - Journal of environmental management JID - 0401664 RN - 0 (Greenhouse Gases) RN - 142M471B3J (Carbon Dioxide) SB - IM MH - Carbon Dioxide/analysis MH - Commerce MH - Economic Development MH - Greenhouse Effect MH - *Greenhouse Gases MH - Humans MH - Internationality OTO - NOTNLM OT - Global supply chain OT - Greenhouse gas emissions OT - International trade OT - No-trade scenario OT - Thought experiment EDAT- 2021/10/16 06:00 MHDA- 2021/10/21 06:00 CRDT- 2021/10/15 01:01 PHST- 2021/04/29 00:00 [received] PHST- 2021/09/22 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2021/09/22 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2021/10/15 01:01 [entrez] PHST- 2021/10/16 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2021/10/21 06:00 [medline] AID - S0301-4797(21)01898-3 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113836 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - J Environ Manage. 2021 Dec 15;300:113836. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113836. Epub 2021 Sep 24.