PMID- 34713781
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20211101
LR  - 20211101
IS  - 0022-9040 (Print)
IS  - 0022-9040 (Linking)
VI  - 61
IP  - 9
DP  - 2021 Sep 30
TI  - The risk score for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation 
      myocardial infarction.
PG  - 11-19
LID - 10.18087/cardio.2021.9.n1720 [doi]
AB  - Aim    To develop a scale (score system) for predicting the individual risk of 
      in-hospital death in patients with ST segment elevation acute myocardial 
      infarction (STEMI) with an account of results of percutaneous coronary 
      intervention (PCI).Material and methods    The analysis used data of 1 649 
      sequential patients with STEMI included into the hospital registry of PCI from 
      2006 through 2017. To test the model predictability, the original sample was 
      divided into two groups: a training group consisting of 1150 (70 %) patients and 
      a test group consisting of 499 (30 %) patients. The training sample was used for 
      computing an individual score. To this purpose, beta-coefficients of each variable 
      obtained at the last stage of the multivariate logistic regression model were 
      subjected to linear transformation. The scale was verified using the test 
      sample.Results    Seven independent predictors of in-hospital death were 
      determined: age >/=65 years, acute heart failure (Killip class III-IV), total 
      myocardial ischemia time >/=180 min, anterior localization of myocardial 
      infarction, failure of PCI, SYNTAX scale score >/=16, glycemia on admission >/=7.78 
      mmol/l for patients without a history of diabetes mellitus and >/=14.35 mmol/l for 
      patients with a history of diabetes mellitus. The contribution of each value to 
      the risk of in-hospital death was ranked from 0 to 7. A threshold total score of 
      10 was determined; a score >/=10 corresponded to a high probability of in-hospital 
      death (18.2 %). In the training sample, the sensitivity was 81 %, the specificity 
      was 80.6 %, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.902. In the test sample, the 
      sensitivity was 96.2 %, the specificity was 83.3 %, and the AUC was 
      0.924.Conclusion    The developed scale has a good predictive accuracy in 
      identifying patients with acute STEMI who have a high risk of fatal outcome at 
      the hospital stage.
FAU - Bessonov, I S
AU  - Bessonov IS
AD  - Tyumen Cardiology Research Center, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, 
      Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia.
FAU - Kuznetsov, V A
AU  - Kuznetsov VA
AD  - Tyumen Cardiology Research Center, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, 
      Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia.
FAU - Sapozhnikov, S S
AU  - Sapozhnikov SS
AD  - Tyumen Cardiology Research Center, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, 
      Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia.
FAU - Gorbatenko, E A
AU  - Gorbatenko EA
AD  - Tyumen Cardiology Research Center, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, 
      Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia.
FAU - Shadrin, A A
AU  - Shadrin AA
AD  - Tyumen Cardiology Research Center, Tomsk National Research Medical Center, 
      Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia.
LA  - rus
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20210930
PL  - Russia (Federation)
TA  - Kardiologiia
JT  - Kardiologiia
JID - 0376351
SB  - IM
MH  - Aged
MH  - Hospital Mortality
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis
MH  - *Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
MH  - Risk Assessment
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - *ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis
MH  - Treatment Outcome
EDAT- 2021/10/30 06:00
MHDA- 2021/11/03 06:00
CRDT- 2021/10/29 08:43
PHST- 2021/06/10 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2021/07/16 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2021/07/12 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2021/10/29 08:43 [entrez]
PHST- 2021/10/30 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2021/11/03 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.18087/cardio.2021.9.n1720 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Kardiologiia. 2021 Sep 30;61(9):11-19. doi: 10.18087/cardio.2021.9.n1720.