PMID- 34779870
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20220616
LR  - 20220616
IS  - 1863-9941 (Electronic)
IS  - 1863-9933 (Linking)
VI  - 48
IP  - 3
DP  - 2022 Jun
TI  - Prediction of recovery in trauma patients using Latent Markov models.
PG  - 2059-2080
LID - 10.1007/s00068-021-01798-7 [doi]
AB  - PURPOSE: Patients' expectations during recovery after a trauma can affect the 
      recovery. The aim of the present study was to identify different physical 
      recovery trajectories based on Latent Markov Models (LMMs) and predict these 
      recovery states based on individual patient characteristics. METHODS: The data of 
      a cohort of adult trauma patients until the age of 75 years with a length of 
      hospital stay of 3 days and more were derived from the Brabant Injury Outcome 
      Surveillance (BIOS) study. The EuroQol-5D 3-level version and the Health 
      Utilities Index were used 1 week, and 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after injury. 
      Four prediction models, for mobility, pain, self-care, and daily activity, were 
      developed using LMMs with ordinal latent states and patient characteristics as 
      predictors for the latent states. RESULTS: In total, 1107 patients were included. 
      Four models with three ordinal latent states were developed, with different 
      covariates in each model. The prediction of the (ordinal) latent states in the 
      LMMs yielded pseudo-R(2) values between 40 and 53% and between 21 and 41% 
      (depending of the type R(2) used) and classification errors between 24 and 40%. 
      Most patients seem to recover fast as only about a quarter of the patients remain 
      with severe problems after 1 month. CONCLUSION: The use of LMMs to model the 
      development of physical function post-injury is a promising way to obtain a 
      prediction of the physical recovery. The step-by-step prediction fits well with 
      the outpatient follow-up and it can be used to inform the patients more 
      tailor-made to manage the expectations.
CI  - (c) 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
FAU - Havermans, Roos Johanna Maria
AU  - Havermans RJM
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-7037-4671
AD  - Department of Surgery, ETZ Hospital, Tilburg, The Netherlands. 
      r.havermans@etz.nl.
AD  - Brabant Trauma Registry, Network Emergency Care Brabant, Tilburg, The 
      Netherlands. r.havermans@etz.nl.
FAU - Clouth, Felix Johannes
AU  - Clouth FJ
AD  - Department of Methodology and Statistics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The 
      Netherlands.
FAU - Lansink, Koen Willem Wouter
AU  - Lansink KWW
AD  - Department of Surgery, ETZ Hospital, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
AD  - Brabant Trauma Registry, Network Emergency Care Brabant, Tilburg, The 
      Netherlands.
FAU - Vermunt, Jeroen Kornelis
AU  - Vermunt JK
AD  - Department of Methodology and Statistics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The 
      Netherlands.
FAU - de Jongh, Mariska Adriana Cornelia
AU  - de Jongh MAC
AD  - Brabant Trauma Registry, Network Emergency Care Brabant, Tilburg, The 
      Netherlands.
FAU - de Munter, Leonie
AU  - de Munter L
AD  - Department Trauma TopCare, ETZ Hospital, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20211115
PL  - Germany
TA  - Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg
JT  - European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the 
      European Trauma Society
JID - 101313350
SB  - IM
MH  - *Activities of Daily Living
MH  - Adult
MH  - Aged
MH  - Cohort Studies
MH  - Humans
MH  - Length of Stay
MH  - *Outcome Assessment, Health Care
MH  - Recovery of Function
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Latent Markov model
OT  - Physical function
OT  - Recovery
OT  - Trauma
EDAT- 2021/11/16 06:00
MHDA- 2022/06/18 06:00
CRDT- 2021/11/15 12:25
PHST- 2021/04/11 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2021/09/26 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2021/11/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/06/18 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2021/11/15 12:25 [entrez]
AID - 10.1007/s00068-021-01798-7 [pii]
AID - 10.1007/s00068-021-01798-7 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg. 2022 Jun;48(3):2059-2080. doi: 
      10.1007/s00068-021-01798-7. Epub 2021 Nov 15.