PMID- 35073420
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20220323
LR  - 20220323
IS  - 1537-2537 (Electronic)
IS  - 0047-2425 (Linking)
VI  - 51
IP  - 2
DP  - 2022 Mar
TI  - Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for predicted soil test phosphorus using the 
      Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator model.
PG  - 216-227
LID - 10.1002/jeq2.20328 [doi]
AB  - In this study we conducted a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the 
      Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model focusing on model predictions of soil test 
      phosphorus (STP). We calculated and evaluated the sensitivity coefficients of 
      predicted STP and changes in STP using 1- and 10-yr simulations with and without 
      P application. We also compared two methods for estimating prediction 
      uncertainties: first-order variance approximation (FOVA) and Monte Carlo 
      simulation (MCS). Finally, we compared uncertainties in APLE-predicted STP with 
      uncertainties in measured STP collected from multiple sites in Maryland under 
      different manuring and cropping treatments. Results from our sensitivity analysis 
      showed that predicted STP and changes in STP for 1-yr simulations without P 
      inputs were most sensitive to initial STP, whereas model STP predictions were 
      most sensitive to manure and fertilizer application rates when sensitivity 
      analyses included P inputs. For the 10-yr simulations without P application 
      inputs, the range in sensitivity coefficients for crop uptake and precipitation 
      were much greater than for the 1-yr simulations. Prediction uncertainties from 
      FOVA were comparable to those from MCS for model input uncertainties up to 50%. 
      Using FOVA to calculate APLE STP prediction uncertainties using the Maryland data 
      set, the mean measured STP for nearly all site years fell within the 95% 
      confidence intervals of the STP prediction uncertainties. Our results provide 
      users of APLE insight into what model inputs require the most careful measurement 
      when using the model to predict changes in STP under conditions of P drawdown 
      (i.e., no P application) or P buildup.
CI  - (c) 2022 University of Maryland, Colleger Park. Journal of Environmental Quality (c) 
      2022 American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil 
      Science Society of America. This article has been contributed to by US Government 
      employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.
FAU - Bolster, Carl H
AU  - Bolster CH
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-6646-0921
AD  - USDA-ARS, Food Animal Environmental Systems Research Unit, 2413 Nashville Rd.- 
      B5, Bowling Green, KY, 42101, USA.
FAU - Wessel, Barret M
AU  - Wessel BM
AD  - USDA-ARS, Food Animal Environmental Systems Research Unit, 2413 Nashville Rd.- 
      B5, Bowling Green, KY, 42101, USA.
FAU - Vadas, Peter A
AU  - Vadas PA
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-8103-9086
AD  - USDA-ARS, Office of National Programs, 5601 Sunnyside Ave., Beltsville, MD, 
      20705, USA.
FAU - Fiorellino, Nicole M
AU  - Fiorellino NM
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-4803-6064
AD  - Dep. of Plant Science & Landscape Architecture, Univ. of Maryland, 4291 
      Fieldhouse Drive, 2124 Plant Science Building, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20220218
PL  - United States
TA  - J Environ Qual
JT  - Journal of environmental quality
JID - 0330666
RN  - 0 (Fertilizers)
RN  - 0 (Manure)
RN  - 0 (Soil)
RN  - 27YLU75U4W (Phosphorus)
SB  - IM
MH  - Fertilizers
MH  - Manure
MH  - *Phosphorus
MH  - *Soil
MH  - Uncertainty
EDAT- 2022/01/25 06:00
MHDA- 2022/03/24 06:00
CRDT- 2022/01/24 17:15
PHST- 2021/09/02 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2022/01/03 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2022/01/25 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/03/24 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2022/01/24 17:15 [entrez]
AID - 10.1002/jeq2.20328 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - J Environ Qual. 2022 Mar;51(2):216-227. doi: 10.1002/jeq2.20328. Epub 2022 Feb 
      18.