PMID- 35250610 OWN - NLM STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE LR - 20220308 IS - 1664-042X (Print) IS - 1664-042X (Electronic) IS - 1664-042X (Linking) VI - 13 DP - 2022 TI - Unraveling the Factors Determining Development of Type 2 Diabetes in Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Through Machine-Learning Techniques. PG - 789219 LID - 10.3389/fphys.2022.789219 [doi] LID - 789219 AB - Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a type of diabetes that usually resolves at the end of the pregnancy but exposes to a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to unravel the factors, among those that quantify specific metabolic processes, which determine progression to T2DM by using machine-learning techniques. Classification of women who did progress to T2DM (labeled as PROG, n = 19) vs. those who did not (labeled as NON-PROG, n = 59) progress to T2DM has been performed by using Orange software through a data analysis procedure on a generated data set including anthropometric data and a total of 34 features, extracted through mathematical modeling/methods procedures. Feature selection has been performed through decision tree algorithm and then Naive Bayes and penalized (L2) logistic regression were used to evaluate the ability of the selected features to solve the classification problem. Performance has been evaluated in terms of area under the operating receiver characteristics (AUC), classification accuracy (CA), precision, sensitivity, specificity, and F1. Feature selection provided six features, and based on them, classification was performed as follows: AUC of 0.795, 0.831, and 0.884; CA of 0.827, 0.813, and 0.840; precision of 0.830, 0.854, and 0.834; sensitivity of 0.827, 0.813, and 0.840; specificity of 0.700, 0.821, and 0.662; and F1 of 0.828, 0.824, and 0.836 for tree algorithm, Naive Bayes, and penalized logistic regression, respectively. Fasting glucose, age, and body mass index together with features describing insulin action and secretion may predict the development of T2DM in women with a history of GDM. CI - Copyright (c) 2022 Ilari, Piersanti, Gobl, Burattini, Kautzky-Willer, Tura and Morettini. FAU - Ilari, Ludovica AU - Ilari L AD - Department of Information Engineering, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy. FAU - Piersanti, Agnese AU - Piersanti A AD - Department of Information Engineering, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy. FAU - Gobl, Christian AU - Gobl C AD - Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. FAU - Burattini, Laura AU - Burattini L AD - Department of Information Engineering, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy. FAU - Kautzky-Willer, Alexandra AU - Kautzky-Willer A AD - Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria. FAU - Tura, Andrea AU - Tura A AD - Metabolic Unit, CNR Institute of Neuroscience, Padua, Italy. FAU - Morettini, Micaela AU - Morettini M AD - Department of Information Engineering, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20220217 PL - Switzerland TA - Front Physiol JT - Frontiers in physiology JID - 101549006 PMC - PMC8892139 OTO - NOTNLM OT - disease prediction OT - logistic regression OT - mathematical model OT - pathophysiology OT - predictive biomarker OT - statistical learning COIS- The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. EDAT- 2022/03/08 06:00 MHDA- 2022/03/08 06:01 PMCR- 2022/02/17 CRDT- 2022/03/07 06:02 PHST- 2021/10/04 00:00 [received] PHST- 2022/01/11 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2022/03/07 06:02 [entrez] PHST- 2022/03/08 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2022/03/08 06:01 [medline] PHST- 2022/02/17 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.3389/fphys.2022.789219 [doi] PST - epublish SO - Front Physiol. 2022 Feb 17;13:789219. doi: 10.3389/fphys.2022.789219. eCollection 2022.