PMID- 35308541
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
LR  - 20220322
IS  - 2296-858X (Print)
IS  - 2296-858X (Electronic)
IS  - 2296-858X (Linking)
VI  - 9
DP  - 2022
TI  - Epidemic Trends in High Tuberculosis Burden Countries During the Last Three 
      Decades and Feasibility of Achieving the Global Targets at the Country Level.
PG  - 798465
LID - 10.3389/fmed.2022.798465 [doi]
LID - 798465
AB  - OBJECTIVE: To estimate the epidemic trends of tuberculosis (TB) in 30 high burden 
      countries (HBCs) over the past 30 years, which is crucial for tracking the status 
      of disease control, especially at the country level. METHODS: Annual data on 
      incidence and mortality of TB in these 30 HBCs were extracted from the Global 
      Burden of Disease database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to 
      evaluate the trends of incidence and mortality. The trajectory analysis was used 
      to identify different trends among the subgroup countries. The predicted 
      incidence and mortality rates in 2025, 2030, and 2035 were also calculated. 
      RESULTS: The incidence and mortality decreased in most of the HBCs. The AAPCs of 
      incidence ranged between -4.0 (Indonesia) and -0.2% (DR Congo) (all p < 0.05). 
      The incidence trends in Lesotho (AAPC: 0%, 95% CI: -0.4, 0.3, p = 0.8) and South 
      Africa (AAPC: -0.2%, 95% CI: -0.5, 0, p = 0.1) were stable, and increased in 
      Kenya with AAPC of 0.1% (95% CI: 0.1, 0.2, p < 0.05). The AAPCs for mortality 
      ranged between -5.8 (Ethiopia) and -0.6% (Central African Republic) (all p < 
      0.05). The mortality trends in DPR Korea (AAPC: 0.1%, 95% CI: -0.3, 0.4, p = 0.6) 
      and Russian Federation (AAPC: -0.5%, 95% CI: -1.9, 0.9, p = 0.5) were stable, and 
      increased in Lesotho and Zimbabwe with AAPC of 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1, 1.4, p < 0.05) 
      and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 2.2, p < 0.05), respectively. Trajectory analysis showed 
      that the Central African Republic, Lesotho, Cambodia, Namibia, and South Africa 
      had higher incidences, and the Central African Republic had higher mortality. 
      Brazil and China had relatively lower rates of incidence and mortality. 
      Predictions showed that reduction rates of incidence and mortality could hardly 
      be reached compared with those set for the global targets for the majority HBCs. 
      CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of TB has been reduced among the majority HBCs 
      over the last three decades. According to the current control levels, achieving 
      the ambitious global targets at the country level for these 30 HBCs is 
      challenging.
CI  - Copyright (c) 2022 Ding, Hu, Shangguan, Guo, Wang, Feng, Zhang, Zhang and Xu.
FAU - Ding, Cheng
AU  - Ding C
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Hu, Ming
AU  - Hu M
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Shangguan, Yanwan
AU  - Shangguan Y
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Guo, Wanru
AU  - Guo W
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Wang, Shuting
AU  - Wang S
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Feng, Xuewen
AU  - Feng X
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Zhang, Zunjing
AU  - Zhang Z
AD  - Lishui Hospital of TCM, Lishui, China.
FAU - Zhang, Ying
AU  - Zhang Y
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
FAU - Xu, Kaijin
AU  - Xu K
AD  - State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National 
      Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, National Medical Center for 
      Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment 
      of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School 
      of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20220303
PL  - Switzerland
TA  - Front Med (Lausanne)
JT  - Frontiers in medicine
JID - 101648047
PMC - PMC8927670
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Burden of Disease
OT  - epidemics
OT  - forecasting
OT  - public health surveillance
OT  - tuberculosis
COIS- The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any 
      commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential 
      conflict of interest.
EDAT- 2022/03/22 06:00
MHDA- 2022/03/22 06:01
PMCR- 2022/03/03
CRDT- 2022/03/21 08:40
PHST- 2021/10/20 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2022/01/27 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2022/03/21 08:40 [entrez]
PHST- 2022/03/22 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/03/22 06:01 [medline]
PHST- 2022/03/03 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.3389/fmed.2022.798465 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Front Med (Lausanne). 2022 Mar 3;9:798465. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2022.798465. 
      eCollection 2022.