PMID- 35452106
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20220426
LR  - 20220716
IS  - 2574-3805 (Electronic)
IS  - 2574-3805 (Linking)
VI  - 5
IP  - 4
DP  - 2022 Apr 1
TI  - COVID-19 Vaccination and Estimated Public Health Impact in California.
PG  - e228526
LID - 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8526 [doi]
LID - e228526
AB  - IMPORTANCE: Despite widespread vaccination against COVID-19 in the United States, 
      there are limited empirical data quantifying their public health impact in the 
      population. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of COVID-19 cases, 
      hospitalizations, and deaths directly averted because of COVID-19 vaccination in 
      California. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This modeling study used 
      person-level data provided by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) 
      on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as well as COVID-19 vaccine 
      administration from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021. A statistical model was 
      used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases that would have occurred in the 
      vaccine era (November 29, 2020, to October 16, 2021) in the absence of 
      vaccination based on the ratio of the number of cases among the unvaccinated 
      (aged <12 years) and vaccine-eligible groups (aged >/=12 years) before vaccine 
      introduction. Vaccine-averted COVID-19 cases were estimated by finding the 
      difference between the projected and observed number of COVID-19 cases. Averted 
      COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were assessed by applying estimated 
      hospitalization and case fatality risks to estimates of vaccine-averted COVID-19 
      cases. As a sensitivity analysis, a second independent model was developed to 
      estimate the number of vaccine-averted COVID-19 outcomes by applying published 
      data on vaccine effectiveness to data on COVID-19 vaccine administration and 
      estimated risk of COVID-19 over time. EXPOSURE: COVID-19 vaccination. MAIN 
      OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths 
      estimated to have been averted because of COVID-19 vaccination. RESULTS: There 
      were 4 585 248 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 240 718 hospitalizations, and 70 406 
      deaths in California from January 1, 2020, to October 16, 2021, during which 
      27 164 680 vaccine-eligible individuals aged 12 years and older were reported to 
      have received at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in the vaccine era (79.5% of 
      the eligible population). The primary model estimated that COVID-19 vaccination 
      averted 1 523 500 (95% prediction interval [PI], 976 800-2 230 800) COVID-19 
      cases in California, corresponding to a 72% (95% PI, 53%-91%) relative reduction 
      in cases because of vaccination. COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to have 
      averted 72 930 (95% PI, 53 250-99 160) hospitalizations and 19 430 (95% PI, 
      14 840-26 230) deaths during the study period. The alternative model identified 
      comparable findings. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provides evidence of 
      the public health benefit of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and 
      further supports the urgency for continued vaccination.
FAU - Tan, Sophia T
AU  - Tan ST
AD  - Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, University of 
      California, San Francisco.
FAU - Park, Hailey J
AU  - Park HJ
AD  - Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, University of 
      California, San Francisco.
FAU - Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
AU  - Rodriguez-Barraquer I
AD  - Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, University of 
      California, San Francisco.
AD  - Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.
FAU - Rutherford, George W
AU  - Rutherford GW
AD  - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San 
      Francisco.
FAU - Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten
AU  - Bibbins-Domingo K
AD  - Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.
AD  - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San 
      Francisco.
FAU - Schechter, Robert
AU  - Schechter R
AD  - Immunization Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond.
FAU - Lo, Nathan C
AU  - Lo NC
AD  - Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, University of 
      California, San Francisco.
AD  - Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20220401
PL  - United States
TA  - JAMA Netw Open
JT  - JAMA network open
JID - 101729235
RN  - 0 (COVID-19 Vaccines)
SB  - IM
MH  - *COVID-19/epidemiology/prevention & control
MH  - *COVID-19 Vaccines
MH  - California/epidemiology
MH  - Humans
MH  - Public Health
MH  - United States
MH  - Vaccination
PMC - PMC9034409
COIS- Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Lo reported receiving personal fees from the 
      World Health Organization outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were 
      reported.
EDAT- 2022/04/23 06:00
MHDA- 2022/04/27 06:00
PMCR- 2022/04/22
CRDT- 2022/04/22 12:13
PHST- 2022/04/22 12:13 [entrez]
PHST- 2022/04/23 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/04/27 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2022/04/22 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 2791453 [pii]
AID - zoi220259 [pii]
AID - 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8526 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Apr 1;5(4):e228526. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8526.