PMID- 35902193
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20220801
LR  - 20220818
IS  - 2044-6055 (Electronic)
IS  - 2044-6055 (Linking)
VI  - 12
IP  - 7
DP  - 2022 Jul 28
TI  - Forecasting models for leprosy cases: a scoping review protocol.
PG  - e062828
LID - 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062828 [doi]
LID - e062828
AB  - INTRODUCTION: Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease caused by Mycobacterium 
      leprae that mainly affects the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the 
      upper respiratory tract and the eyes. Mathematical models and statistical 
      methodologies could play an important role in decision-making and help maintain 
      the gains in elimination programmes. Various models for predicting leprosy cases 
      have been reported in the literature, but they have different settings and 
      distinct approaches to predicting the cases. This study describes the protocol 
      for a scoping review to identify and synthesise information from studies using 
      models to forecast leprosy cases. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review 
      methodology will be applied following the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for 
      scoping reviews and will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for 
      Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis Extension for Scoping Reviews. We will 
      perform a systematic search from when each database started until April 2022 and 
      we will include the following electronic databases: MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, 
      Cochrane Library and Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature 
      Database. Data will be extracted and recorded on a calibrated predefined data 
      form and will be presented in a tabular form accompanied by a descriptive 
      summary. The Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) will 
      be used. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval is required for this 
      study. This scoping review will identify and map the methodological and other 
      characteristics of modelling studies predicting leprosy cases. We hope that the 
      review will contribute to scientific knowledge in this area and act as a basis 
      for researchers designing and conducting leprosy models. This information can 
      also be used to enhance national surveillance systems and to target specific 
      policies. The protocol and consequent publications of this scoping review will be 
      disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and policy briefs. SYSTEMATIC 
      REVIEW REGISTRATION: This scoping review was registered in the Open Science 
      Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W9375).
CI  - (c) Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No 
      commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
FAU - Oliveira Ascef, Bruna
AU  - Oliveira Ascef B
AD  - International Research Center, Hospital Alemao Oswaldo Cruz, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
FAU - de Oliveira, Gustavo Laine Araujo
AU  - de Oliveira GLA
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-4811-7753
AD  - The Disease Surveillance and Elimination Coordinating Committee, Department of 
      Chronic Conditions and Sexually Transmitted Infections, Health Surveillance 
      Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
FAU - Ribeiro Filha Coriolano, Carmelita
AU  - Ribeiro Filha Coriolano C
AD  - The Disease Surveillance and Elimination Coordinating Committee, Department of 
      Chronic Conditions and Sexually Transmitted Infections, Health Surveillance 
      Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
FAU - De Oliveira Junior, Haliton Alves
AU  - De Oliveira Junior HA
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-0289-4947
AD  - International Research Center, Hospital Alemao Oswaldo Cruz, Sao Paulo, Brazil 
      haoliveira@haoc.com.br.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20220728
PL  - England
TA  - BMJ Open
JT  - BMJ open
JID - 101552874
SB  - IM
MH  - Caribbean Region
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Leprosy/epidemiology
MH  - Research Design
MH  - Review Literature as Topic
MH  - Risk Assessment
MH  - Systematic Reviews as Topic
PMC - PMC9341210
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - EPIDEMIOLOGY
OT  - INFECTIOUS DISEASES
OT  - TROPICAL MEDICINE
COIS- Competing interests: None declared.
EDAT- 2022/07/29 06:00
MHDA- 2022/08/02 06:00
PMCR- 2022/07/28
CRDT- 2022/07/28 21:12
PHST- 2022/07/28 21:12 [entrez]
PHST- 2022/07/29 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/08/02 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2022/07/28 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - bmjopen-2022-062828 [pii]
AID - 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062828 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - BMJ Open. 2022 Jul 28;12(7):e062828. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062828.