PMID- 35964263
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20220913
LR  - 20221021
IS  - 1432-1939 (Electronic)
IS  - 0029-8549 (Linking)
VI  - 199
IP  - 4
DP  - 2022 Aug
TI  - Determinants of spring molt in bighorn sheep: life-history, plasticity and 
      phenology.
PG  - 809-817
LID - 10.1007/s00442-022-05231-7 [doi]
AB  - Anthropogenic climate change and habitat alterations increase the importance of 
      understanding the causes and consequences of variation in phenological traits. 
      Although the timing of phenological events may vary in response to both direct 
      and mediated effects, methods to measure and distinguish direct and mediated 
      effects have seldom been used. We used a Bayesian structural equation model (SEM) 
      to evaluate potential direct and mediated effects of intrinsic individual and 
      environmental factors on the timing and progression of spring molt in bighorn 
      sheep. The SEM showed that molt phenology varied across years, was earlier in 
      prime-aged and in heavier individuals, slower in males, and later in lactating 
      ewes, especially if they were light. These results highlight how individual 
      variation in intrinsic traits and life-history leads to substantial variation in 
      a phenological trait. Indirect effects in the SEM predicted a delay in sheep molt 
      phenology at high population density mediated through negative density effects on 
      body mass and lactation probability. Cooler temperatures in late spring were also 
      predicted to delay molt phenology via a negative effect on body mass. Finally, 
      lactation reduced ewe mass which was predicted to delay molt phenology. This 
      mediated effect thus increased the total delay (sum of direct and mediated 
      effects) in molt phenology experience by lactating ewes. Our results underline 
      the importance of estimating direct and indirect effects when modeling 
      phenological traits. Because indirect effects could substantially affect 
      estimates of total plasticity, they should be critically important to accurately 
      predict phenological mismatches and demographic consequences of environmental 
      change.
CI  - (c) 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, 
      part of Springer Nature.
FAU - Larue, Benjamin
AU  - Larue B
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-4608-9288
AD  - Departement de Biologie, Universite de Sherbrooke, 2500 Boulevard de 
      l'Universite, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2R1, Canada. benjamin.larue@usherbrooke.ca.
FAU - Pelletier, Fanie
AU  - Pelletier F
AD  - Departement de Biologie, Universite de Sherbrooke, 2500 Boulevard de 
      l'Universite, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2R1, Canada.
FAU - Festa-Bianchet, Marco
AU  - Festa-Bianchet M
AD  - Departement de Biologie, Universite de Sherbrooke, 2500 Boulevard de 
      l'Universite, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2R1, Canada.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20220814
PL  - Germany
TA  - Oecologia
JT  - Oecologia
JID - 0150372
SB  - IM
MH  - *Adaptation, Physiological
MH  - Animals
MH  - Bayes Theorem
MH  - *Climate Change
MH  - Female
MH  - Lactation
MH  - Male
MH  - *Molting
MH  - Seasons
MH  - Sheep
MH  - *Sheep, Bighorn
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Bighorn sheep
OT  - Life-history
OT  - Molt
OT  - Phenology
OT  - Phenotypic plasticity
EDAT- 2022/08/15 06:00
MHDA- 2022/09/14 06:00
CRDT- 2022/08/14 13:56
PHST- 2021/07/23 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2022/07/25 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2022/08/15 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2022/09/14 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2022/08/14 13:56 [entrez]
AID - 10.1007/s00442-022-05231-7 [pii]
AID - 10.1007/s00442-022-05231-7 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Oecologia. 2022 Aug;199(4):809-817. doi: 10.1007/s00442-022-05231-7. Epub 2022 
      Aug 14.