PMID- 36631038
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20230113
LR  - 20230113
IS  - 0578-1426 (Print)
IS  - 0578-1426 (Linking)
VI  - 62
IP  - 1
DP  - 2023 Jan 1
TI  - [Study on nomograph predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Beijing 
      community adults].
PG  - 54-60
LID - 10.3760/cma.j.cn112138-20220508-00348 [doi]
AB  - Objective: Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the 4-year 
      incidence of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Chinese population was 
      attempted. Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted in Shijingshan 
      District Pingguoyuan Community (Beijing, China) from December 2011 to April 2012 
      among adults aged>/=40 years not suffering from T2DM. Finally, 8 058 adults free of 
      T2DM were included with a median duration of follow-up of 4 years. Participants 
      were divided into a modeling group and verification group using simple random 
      sampling at a ratio of 7ratio3. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk 
      models were applied to identify the independent risk predictors in the modeling 
      group. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 4-year incidence of T2DM based 
      on the results of multivariate analysis. The Concordance Index and calibration 
      plots were used to evaluate the differentiation and calibration of the nomogram 
      in both groups. Results: A total of 5 641 individuals were in the modeling group 
      and 2 417 people were in the validation group, of which 265 and 106 had T2DM, 
      respectively, at 4-year follow-up. In the modeling group, age (HR=1.349, 95%CI 
      1.011-1.800), body mass index (HR=1.347, 95%CI 1.038-1.746), hyperlipidemia 
      (HR=1.504, 95%CI 1.133-1.996), fasting blood glucose (HR=4.189, 95%CI 
      3.010-5.830), 2-h blood glucose level according to the oral glucose tolerance 
      test (HR=3.005, 95%CI 2.129-4.241), level of glycosylated hemoglobin (HR=3.162, 
      95%CI 2.283-4.380), and level of gamma-glutamyl transferase (HR=1.920, 95%CI 
      1.385-2.661) were independent risk factors for T2DM. Validation of the nomogram 
      revealed the Concordance Index of the modeling group and validation group to be 
      0.906 (95%CI 0.888-0.925) and 0.844 (95%CI 0.796-0.892), respectively. 
      Calibration plots showed good calibration in both groups. Conclusion: These data 
      suggest that our nomogram could be a simple and reliable tool for predicting the 
      4-year risk of developing T2DM in a high-risk Chinese population.
FAU - Liu, H Z
AU  - Liu HZ
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Wang, A P
AU  - Wang AP
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Wang, Y J
AU  - Wang YJ
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Du, J
AU  - Du J
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Gu, W J
AU  - Gu WJ
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Lyu, Z H
AU  - Lyu ZH
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Dou, J T
AU  - Dou JT
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
FAU - Mu, Y M
AU  - Mu YM
AD  - Department of Endocrinology, the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General 
      Hospital, Beijing 100853, China.
LA  - chi
GR  - 2018YFC1314103/National Key R&D Program of China/
PT  - English Abstract
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - China
TA  - Zhonghua Nei Ke Za Zhi
JT  - Zhonghua nei ke za zhi
JID - 16210490R
RN  - 0 (Blood Glucose)
SB  - IM
MH  - Adult
MH  - Humans
MH  - *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology
MH  - Beijing/epidemiology
MH  - Blood Glucose/analysis
MH  - Prospective Studies
MH  - Risk Factors
EDAT- 2023/01/12 06:00
MHDA- 2023/01/14 06:00
CRDT- 2023/01/11 19:23
PHST- 2023/01/11 19:23 [entrez]
PHST- 2023/01/12 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2023/01/14 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.3760/cma.j.cn112138-20220508-00348 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Zhonghua Nei Ke Za Zhi. 2023 Jan 1;62(1):54-60. doi: 
      10.3760/cma.j.cn112138-20220508-00348.