PMID- 36662791 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20230227 LR - 20231118 IS - 1932-6203 (Electronic) IS - 1932-6203 (Linking) VI - 18 IP - 1 DP - 2023 TI - Longitudinal HbA1c trajectory modelling reveals the association of HbA1c and risk of hospitalization for heart failure for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. PG - e0275610 LID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0275610 [doi] LID - e0275610 AB - BACKGROUND: Inconsistent conclusions in past studies on the association between poor glycaemic control and the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) have been reported largely due to the analysis of non-trajectory-based HbA1c values. Trajectory analysis can incorporate the effects of HbA1c variability across time, which may better elucidate its association with macrovascular complications. Furthermore, studies analysing the relationship between HbA1c trajectories from diabetes diagnosis and the occurrence of HHF are scarce. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of the SingHealth Diabetes Registry (SDR). 17,389 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from 2013 to 2016 with clinical records extending to the end of 2019 were included in the latent class growth analysis to extract longitudinal HbA1c trajectories. Association between HbA1c trajectories and risk of first known HHF is quantified with the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model. RESULTS: 5 distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified as 1. low stable (36.1%), 2. elevated stable (40.4%), 3. high decreasing (3.5%), 4. high with a sharp decline (10.8%), and 5. moderate decreasing (9.2%) over the study period of 7 years. Poorly controlled HbA1c trajectories (Classes 3, 4, and 5) are associated with a higher risk of HHF. Using the diabetes diagnosis time instead of a commonly used pre-defined study start time or time from recruitment has an impact on HbA1c clustering results. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that tracking the evolution of HbA1c with time has its importance in assessing the HHF risk of T2DM patients, and T2DM diagnosis time as a baseline is strongly recommended in HbA1c trajectory modelling. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to identify an association between HbA1c trajectories and HHF occurrence from diabetes diagnosis time. CI - Copyright: (c) 2023 Tee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. FAU - Tee, Clarence AU - Tee C AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-2879-9278 AD - Systems Science Department, Institute of High-Performance Computing, Singapore, Singapore. FAU - Xu, Haiyan AU - Xu H AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-4480-402X AD - Systems Science Department, Institute of High-Performance Computing, Singapore, Singapore. FAU - Fu, Xiuju AU - Fu X AD - Systems Science Department, Institute of High-Performance Computing, Singapore, Singapore. FAU - Cui, Di AU - Cui D AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-9355-9991 AD - Systems Science Department, Institute of High-Performance Computing, Singapore, Singapore. AD - Department of Advanced Design and Systmes Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong. FAU - Jafar, Tazeen H AU - Jafar TH AD - Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. FAU - Bee, Yong Mong AU - Bee YM AD - Department of Endocrinology, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20230120 PL - United States TA - PLoS One JT - PloS one JID - 101285081 RN - 0 (Glycated Hemoglobin) SB - IM MH - Humans MH - *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications MH - *Glycated Hemoglobin/analysis MH - *Heart Failure/diagnosis/ethnology MH - Hospitalization MH - Prospective Studies MH - Risk Factors PMC - PMC9858041 COIS- The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. EDAT- 2023/01/21 06:00 MHDA- 2023/01/25 06:00 PMCR- 2023/01/20 CRDT- 2023/01/20 13:53 PHST- 2021/12/03 00:00 [received] PHST- 2022/09/20 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2023/01/20 13:53 [entrez] PHST- 2023/01/21 06:00 [pubmed] PHST- 2023/01/25 06:00 [medline] PHST- 2023/01/20 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - PONE-D-21-37527 [pii] AID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0275610 [doi] PST - epublish SO - PLoS One. 2023 Jan 20;18(1):e0275610. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275610. eCollection 2023.