PMID- 36791062
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20230217
LR  - 20230406
IS  - 1932-6203 (Electronic)
IS  - 1932-6203 (Linking)
VI  - 18
IP  - 2
DP  - 2023
TI  - Estimating the lifetime risk of a false positive screening test result.
PG  - e0281153
LID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0281153 [doi]
LID - e0281153
AB  - False positive results in screening tests have potentially severe psychological, 
      medical, and financial consequences for the recipient. However, there have been 
      few efforts to quantify how the risk of a false positive accumulates over time. 
      We seek to fill this gap by estimating the probability that an individual who 
      adheres to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) screening guidelines 
      will receive at least one false positive in a lifetime. To do so, we assembled a 
      data set of 116 studies cited by the USPSTF that report the number of true 
      positives, false negatives, true negatives, and false positives for the primary 
      screening procedure for one of five cancers or six sexually transmitted diseases. 
      We use these data to estimate the probability that an individual in one of 14 
      demographic subpopulations will receive at least one false positive for one of 
      these eleven diseases in a lifetime. We specify a suitable statistical model to 
      account for the hierarchical structure of the data, and we use the parametric 
      bootstrap to quantify the uncertainty surrounding our estimates. The estimated 
      probability of receiving at least one false positive in a lifetime is 85.5% 
      (+/-0.9%) and 38.9% (+/-3.6%) for baseline groups of women and men, respectively. It 
      is higher for subpopulations recommended to screen more frequently than the 
      baseline, including more vulnerable groups such as pregnant women and men who 
      have sex with men. Since screening technology is imperfect, false positives 
      remain inevitable. The high lifetime risk of a false positive reveals the 
      importance of educating patients about this phenomenon.
CI  - Copyright: (c) 2023 White, Algeri. This is an open access article distributed under 
      the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted 
      use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author 
      and source are credited.
FAU - White, Tim
AU  - White T
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-5535-0452
AD  - Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United 
      States of America.
AD  - School of Statistics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United 
      States of America.
FAU - Algeri, Sara
AU  - Algeri S
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0001-7366-3866
AD  - School of Statistics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United 
      States of America.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20230215
PL  - United States
TA  - PLoS One
JT  - PloS one
JID - 101285081
SB  - IM
MH  - Pregnancy
MH  - Male
MH  - Humans
MH  - Female
MH  - Homosexuality, Male
MH  - *Sexual and Gender Minorities
MH  - Probability
MH  - *Neoplasms
MH  - False Positive Reactions
MH  - Mass Screening/methods
PMC - PMC9931091
COIS- The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
EDAT- 2023/02/16 06:00
MHDA- 2023/02/18 06:00
PMCR- 2023/02/15
CRDT- 2023/02/15 13:33
PHST- 2022/06/27 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2023/01/14 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2023/02/15 13:33 [entrez]
PHST- 2023/02/16 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2023/02/18 06:00 [medline]
PHST- 2023/02/15 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - PONE-D-22-18274 [pii]
AID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0281153 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - PLoS One. 2023 Feb 15;18(2):e0281153. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281153. 
      eCollection 2023.