PMID- 37404285 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20230707 LR - 20230718 IS - 2296-2565 (Electronic) IS - 2296-2565 (Linking) VI - 11 DP - 2023 TI - Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses. PG - 1167807 LID - 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1167807 [doi] LID - 1167807 AB - AIMS: To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris. METHODS: A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status. RESULTS: All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and >/=35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar. CI - Copyright (c) 2023 Alareeki, Awad, Critchley, El-Nahas, Al-Hamaq, Alyafei, Al-Thani and Abu-Raddad. FAU - Alareeki, Asalah AU - Alareeki A AD - Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar. AD - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar. FAU - Awad, Susanne F AU - Awad SF AD - Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar. AD - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar. AD - Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States. FAU - Critchley, Julia A AU - Critchley JA AD - Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom. FAU - El-Nahas, Katie G AU - El-Nahas KG AD - Qatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Qatar. FAU - Al-Hamaq, Abdulla O AU - Al-Hamaq AO AD - Qatar Diabetes Association, Doha, Qatar. FAU - Alyafei, Salah A AU - Alyafei SA AD - Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar. FAU - Al-Thani, Mohammed H J AU - Al-Thani MHJ AD - Public Health Department, Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar. FAU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J AU - Abu-Raddad LJ AD - Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar. AD - World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar. AD - Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States. AD - Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar. AD - College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar. LA - eng PT - Journal Article PT - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't DEP - 20230619 PL - Switzerland TA - Front Public Health JT - Frontiers in public health JID - 101616579 SB - IM MH - *Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology/prevention & control MH - Public Health MH - Qatar/epidemiology MH - Obesity/epidemiology MH - Models, Theoretical MH - Vegetables PMC - PMC10315912 OTO - NOTNLM OT - consumption OT - epidemiology OT - interventions OT - legislation OT - lifestyle management OT - mathematical modeling OT - non-communicable disease OT - risk factors COIS- The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. EDAT- 2023/07/05 13:05 MHDA- 2023/07/07 06:42 PMCR- 2023/06/19 CRDT- 2023/07/05 10:34 PHST- 2023/02/16 00:00 [received] PHST- 2023/05/30 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2023/07/07 06:42 [medline] PHST- 2023/07/05 13:05 [pubmed] PHST- 2023/07/05 10:34 [entrez] PHST- 2023/06/19 00:00 [pmc-release] AID - 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1167807 [doi] PST - epublish SO - Front Public Health. 2023 Jun 19;11:1167807. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1167807. eCollection 2023.