PMID- 37767960
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20240126
LR  - 20240206
IS  - 2047-4881 (Electronic)
IS  - 2047-4873 (Linking)
VI  - 31
IP  - 2
DP  - 2024 Jan 25
TI  - Development and validation of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in 76 000 
      people with known cardiovascular disease.
PG  - 218-227
LID - 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad314 [doi]
AB  - AIMS: Multiple health administrative databases can be individually linked in 
      Aotearoa New Zealand, using encrypted identifiers. These databases were used to 
      develop cardiovascular risk prediction equations for patients with known 
      cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Administrative health 
      databases were linked to identify all people aged 18-84 years with known CVD, 
      living in Auckland and Northland, Aotearoa New Zealand, on 1 January 2014. The 
      cohort was followed until study outcome, death, or 5 years. The study outcome was 
      death or hospitalization due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, 
      or peripheral vascular disease. Sex-specific 5-year CVD risk prediction equations 
      were developed using multivariable Fine and Gray models. A total of 43 862 men 
      median age: 67 years [interquartile range (IQR): 59-75] and 32 724 women 
      [median age: 70 years (IQR: 60-77)] had 14 252 and 9551 cardiovascular events, 
      respectively. Equations were well calibrated with good discrimination. Increasing 
      age and deprivation, recent cardiovascular hospitalization, Mori ethnicity, 
      smoking history, heart failure, diabetes, chronic renal disease, atrial 
      fibrillation, use of blood pressure lowering and anti-thrombotic drugs, 
      haemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol, and creatinine were 
      statistically significant independent predictors of the study outcome. Fourteen 
      per cent of men and 23% of women had predicted 5-year cardiovascular risk <15%, 
      while 28 and 24% had >/=40% risk. CONCLUSION: Robust cardiovascular risk prediction 
      equations were developed from linked routine health databases, a currently 
      underutilized resource worldwide. The marked heterogeneity demonstrated in 
      predicted risk suggests that preventive therapy in people with known CVD would be 
      better informed by risk stratification beyond a one-size-fits-all high-risk 
      categorization.
CI  - (c) The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the 
      European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please 
      e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
FAU - Holt, Anders
AU  - Holt A
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-8196-2599
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, 
      Gentofte Hospitalsvej 6, Hellerup DK-2900, Denmark.
FAU - Batinica, Bruno
AU  - Batinica B
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Liang, Jingyuan
AU  - Liang J
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Kerr, Andrew
AU  - Kerr A
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
AD  - Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, 
      Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Middlemore Hospital, 100 Hospital Road, Otahuhu, 
      Auckland 2025, New Zealand.
FAU - Crengle, Sue
AU  - Crengle S
AD  - Ngi Tahu Mori Health Research Unit, Division of Health Sciences, University of 
      Otago, 362 Leith Street, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand.
FAU - Hudson, Ben
AU  - Hudson B
AD  - Department of Primary Care and Clinical Simulation, University of Otago, 2 
      Riccarton Avenue, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.
FAU - Wells, Susan
AU  - Wells S
AD  - Department of General Practice and Primary Health Care, School of Population 
      Health, University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New 
      Zealand.
FAU - Harwood, Matire
AU  - Harwood M
AD  - Department of General Practice and Primary Health Care, School of Population 
      Health, University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New 
      Zealand.
FAU - Selak, Vanessa
AU  - Selak V
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Mehta, Suneela
AU  - Mehta S
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Grey, Corina
AU  - Grey C
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Lamberts, Morten
AU  - Lamberts M
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-9827-440X
AD  - Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, 
      Gentofte Hospitalsvej 6, Hellerup DK-2900, Denmark.
FAU - Jackson, Rod
AU  - Jackson R
AD  - Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, 
      University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
FAU - Poppe, Katrina K
AU  - Poppe KK
AD  - Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Auckland, 85 Park Road, 
      Grafton, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
LA  - eng
GR  - 30206-383/Ib Mogens Kristiansens Almene Fond/
GR  - 20-B-0035/Helsefonden/
GR  - 167/1/Snedkermester Sophus Jacobsen og hustru Astrid Jacobsen Fond/
GR  - 2020-0379/Marie og M.B. Richters Fond/
GR  - Dagmar Marshalls Fond/
GR  - 20-02-1523/Knud Hojgaards Fond/
GR  - 20-JU-0079/Reinholdt W. Jorck og Hustrus Fond/
GR  - Familien Hede Nielsens Fond/
GR  - Danske Laegers Forsikringsforening/
GR  - Kontorchef Gerhard Brondsteds Rejselegat/
GR  - Lily Benthine Lunds Fond/
GR  - Ketty og Ejvind Lyngsbaeks Fond/
GR  - Carl og Ellen Hertz' Videnskabslegat/
GR  - 100976-5/Ulla og Mogens Folmer Andersens Almennyttige Fond/
GR  - 1788992643/Torben og Alice Frimodts Fond/
GR  - New Zealand Heart Foundation Heart Health Research Trust/
GR  - China Scholarship Council/
GR  - Auckland Medical Research Foundation/
GR  - NZ Health Research Council/
GR  - National Heart Foundation of NZ and National Science Challenge/
GR  - NZ Health Research Council/
GR  - National Science Challenge/
PT  - Journal Article
PL  - England
TA  - Eur J Prev Cardiol
JT  - European journal of preventive cardiology
JID - 101564430
SB  - IM
CIN - Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2023 Oct 26;:. PMID: 37883698
CIN - Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2023 Oct 26;:. PMID: 37883702
MH  - Male
MH  - Humans
MH  - Female
MH  - Aged
MH  - *Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis/epidemiology/prevention & control
MH  - Risk Factors
MH  - Risk Assessment/methods
MH  - Heart Disease Risk Factors
MH  - *Heart Failure/diagnosis/epidemiology
OAB - Using regionwide New Zealand health databases, methods of predicting 
      hospitalization risk in patients with existing heart disease were developed. 
      Using only data from health databases, it was possible to predict the risk 
      accurately.Among patients with existing heart disease, the predicted risk varied 
      markedly which could help improve preventive strategies.
OABL- eng
OTO - NOTNLM
OT  - Epidemiology
OT  - Risk prediction
OT  - Secondary prevention
COIS- Conflict of interest: S.C. reports board meeting fees from Te Aka Whai Ora and 
      WellSouth Primary Heath Network. M.L. reports speaker fees from Bayer, BMS, and 
      Astra Zeneca. All other authors report no disclosures.
EDAT- 2023/09/28 12:43
MHDA- 2024/01/26 06:44
CRDT- 2023/09/28 07:52
PHST- 2023/08/11 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2023/09/11 00:00 [revised]
PHST- 2023/09/21 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2024/01/26 06:44 [medline]
PHST- 2023/09/28 12:43 [pubmed]
PHST- 2023/09/28 07:52 [entrez]
AID - 7285005 [pii]
AID - 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad314 [doi]
PST - ppublish
SO  - Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2024 Jan 25;31(2):218-227. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad314.