PMID- 38181960 OWN - NLM STAT- MEDLINE DCOM- 20240214 LR - 20240214 IS - 1879-1026 (Electronic) IS - 0048-9697 (Linking) VI - 916 DP - 2024 Mar 15 TI - The coincidence of climate extremes with sensitive crop growth phases: Projected impact on sustainable crop water use and crop yield in the IGB river basins. PG - 169680 LID - S0048-9697(23)08310-9 [pii] LID - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169680 [doi] AB - Increased climate variability and extremes are unequivocal with unprecedented impacts on water resources and agriculture production systems. However, little is known about the impacts of climate extremes at the intra-seasonal level which remained largely unexplored. We investigated the coincidence of climate extremes with sensitive crop growth phases of wheat and rice in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia. We also quantified the related impacts on irrigation water demand (IWD), gross primary production (GPP) and crop yields (CY) simulated by a hydrological-vegetation model (LPJmL) during 1981-2100 using RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3 framework. The climate extremes revealed a higher frequency and intensity during crop growth phases with significant increasing trends in future. Diverse changes in IWD, GPP and CY are projected in future under the influence of crop phase-specific extremes. The crop phase-specific changes in the IWD of wheat and rice will intensify in the future. More than 50 % of the change in future wheat irrigation is caused by warm and dry extremes during the ripening phase. Whereas, increase in IWD for rice is mainly associated with warm extremes only. The crop phase-specific GPP shows a decreasing trend in future for both wheat and rice in the Western part of IGB with the largest decrease during the reproductive phase of wheat (up to 36 %) and vegetative phase of rice (>20 %). This decrease is clearly reflected in seasonal yields i.e., both wheat (20 %) and rice (12 %) showed a decrease in future linked with warm and dry extremes. However, in the Eastern part of IGB, the GPP will mostly increase in future during the three crop phases of wheat and rice. These results can be used to help develop efficient adaptation strategies considering seasonal changes and sensitive crop phases for sustained food and water security in South Asia. CI - Copyright (c) 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V. FAU - Ahmad, Qurat-Ul-Ain AU - Ahmad QU AD - Faculty of Sciences, Earth and Climate Cluster, De Boelelaan 1085, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Water Resources and Glaciology Section, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Government of Pakistan, 6th Floor, Emigration Tower, 10-Mauve Area, G-8/1, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. Electronic address: q.u.r.a.t.ahmad@vu.nl. FAU - Moors, Eddy AU - Moors E AD - Faculty of Sciences, Earth and Climate Cluster, De Boelelaan 1085, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands; IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, the Netherlands. Electronic address: e.j.moors@vu.nl. FAU - Masih, Ilyas AU - Masih I AD - IHE Delft, Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, the Netherlands. Electronic address: i.masih@un-ihe.org. FAU - Shaheen, Nuzba AU - Shaheen N AD - Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Section, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Government of Pakistan, 6th Floor, Emigration Tower, 10-Mauve Area, G-8/1, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. FAU - Biemans, Hester AU - Biemans H AD - Water and Food Research Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: hester.biemans@wur.nl. FAU - Adnan, Muhammad AU - Adnan M AD - Climatology and Environment Section, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Government of Pakistan, 6th Floor, Emigration Tower, 10-Mauve Area, G-8/1, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. LA - eng PT - Journal Article DEP - 20240103 PL - Netherlands TA - Sci Total Environ JT - The Science of the total environment JID - 0330500 RN - 0 (immunoglobulin B) RN - 0 (Immunoglobulins) SB - IM MH - *Rivers MH - Crops, Agricultural MH - Climate Change MH - Climate MH - *Oryza MH - Triticum MH - *Immunoglobulins OTO - NOTNLM OT - Climate extremes OT - Crop phases OT - Irrigation OT - South Asia OT - Yield COIS- Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. EDAT- 2024/01/06 10:42 MHDA- 2024/02/12 18:43 CRDT- 2024/01/05 19:20 PHST- 2023/10/02 00:00 [received] PHST- 2023/12/18 00:00 [revised] PHST- 2023/12/23 00:00 [accepted] PHST- 2024/02/12 18:43 [medline] PHST- 2024/01/06 10:42 [pubmed] PHST- 2024/01/05 19:20 [entrez] AID - S0048-9697(23)08310-9 [pii] AID - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169680 [doi] PST - ppublish SO - Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 15;916:169680. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169680. Epub 2024 Jan 3.