PMID- 38267536
OWN - NLM
STAT- PubMed-not-MEDLINE
LR  - 20240127
IS  - 2045-2322 (Electronic)
IS  - 2045-2322 (Linking)
VI  - 14
IP  - 1
DP  - 2024 Jan 24
TI  - Analyzing urban influence on extreme winter precipitation through observations 
      and numerical simulation of two South China case studies.
PG  - 2099
LID - 10.1038/s41598-024-52193-2 [doi]
LID - 2099
AB  - This study investigates the impact of urbanization on extreme winter rainfall in 
      the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) through the analysis of hourly station 
      observations and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model 
      with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SLUCM). Data from 2008 to 2017 
      reveal that urban areas in the GBA experience lower 99th percentile hourly winter 
      rainfall intensity compared to surrounding rural regions. However, urban 
      locations exhibit higher annual maximum hourly rainfall (Rmax) and very extreme 
      rainfall events (99.99th percentile) in winter, suggesting a positive influence 
      of urbanization on extreme winter precipitation. A case study further underscores 
      the role of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in enhancing extreme rainfall 
      intensity and probability in the GBA urban areas. Additionally, two extreme cases 
      were dynamically downscaled using WRF-SLUCM, involving four parallel experiments: 
      replacing urban land use with cropland (Nourban), using historical urban land use 
      data from 1999 (99LS), projecting near-future urban land use for 2030 (30LS), and 
      considering 2030 urban land use without anthropogenic heat (AH) (30LS-AH0). 
      Synoptic analysis demonstrates that cold air intrusion suppresses the GBA UHI in 
      Case 2013 but not in Case 2015. Reduced evaporation and humidity induced by urban 
      surfaces significantly decrease urban precipitation in Case 2013. In contrast, 
      the persistent UHI in Case 2015 enhances local convection and land-ocean 
      circulation, leading to increased moisture flux convergence and amplified urban 
      precipitation intensity and probability in 30LS compared to Nourban. This 
      amplification is primarily attributed to AH, while the change in 99LS remains 
      insignificant. These findings suggest that urban influences on extreme 
      precipitation in the GBA persist during winter, particularly when the UHI effect 
      is maintained.
CI  - (c) 2024. The Author(s).
FAU - Hu, Chenxi
AU  - Hu C
AD  - Earth System Science Programme, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 
      China.
FAU - Tam, Chi-Yung
AU  - Tam CY
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-5462-6880
AD  - Earth System Science Programme, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 
      China. Francis.Tam@cuhk.edu.hk.
AD  - Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, 
      China. Francis.Tam@cuhk.edu.hk.
FAU - Yang, Zong-Liang
AU  - Yang ZL
AD  - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jackson School of Geoscience, The 
      University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
FAU - Wang, Ziqian
AU  - Wang Z
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0003-3030-0330
AD  - School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, and Southern Marine 
      Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China.
AD  - Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster 
      Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China.
LA  - eng
GR  - 2019YFC1510400/the National Key Research and Development Program of China/
PT  - Journal Article
DEP - 20240124
PL  - England
TA  - Sci Rep
JT  - Scientific reports
JID - 101563288
SB  - IM
PMC - PMC10808133
COIS- The authors declare no competing interests.
EDAT- 2024/01/25 00:42
MHDA- 2024/01/25 00:43
PMCR- 2024/01/24
CRDT- 2024/01/24 23:20
PHST- 2023/09/28 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2024/01/15 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2024/01/25 00:43 [medline]
PHST- 2024/01/25 00:42 [pubmed]
PHST- 2024/01/24 23:20 [entrez]
PHST- 2024/01/24 00:00 [pmc-release]
AID - 10.1038/s41598-024-52193-2 [pii]
AID - 52193 [pii]
AID - 10.1038/s41598-024-52193-2 [doi]
PST - epublish
SO  - Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 24;14(1):2099. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-52193-2.